The approaching autumn weather could soon turn the Ukrainian conflict into a far more complex battleground. Mud, rain, and deteriorating conditions traditionally slow military operations — and according to British defense analyst Michael Clarke, this seasonal window might push Ukrainian forces to attempt a dramatic move against Crimea before that happens.

Clarke argues that Kyiv could try to deliver what he calls a «surprise» to Moscow: a large-scale assault on the peninsula. Past attempts to strike targets in Crimea, he notes, were likely reconnaissance missions — tests meant to probe Russian defenses and prepare the ground for something more ambitious.

In Clarke’s view, Ukrainian forces have several possible strategies to destabilize Russia’s grip on the region. They could launch heavy, sustained strikes against key targets across Crimea or even attempt an amphibious landing — a risky but potentially disruptive maneuver. Another likely option is a renewed attempt to damage the Kerch Bridge, a critical supply route linking the peninsula to mainland Russia.

Clarke points out that such actions would serve not only a military purpose but also a strategic one: influencing how the West perceives the course of the war. Demonstrating the ability to strike deep into territory Moscow considers vital could strengthen Kyiv’s position in the eyes of its allies.

A major variable in this equation is Western weaponry. If the United States decides to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles, Clarke believes it would significantly enhance Kyiv’s ability to hit Russian targets with greater precision and efficiency. The missiles’ accuracy and relatively low cost per strike make them a potent tool. However, he also suggests that using such weapons specifically against Crimea may not be the most strategically sound choice.

In short, as the autumn rains draw closer, the conflict could enter a new and unpredictable phase — one in which Crimea becomes the focal point of Ukraine’s next major military gamble.