Speculation is growing online about a possible new offensive being prepared by the Ukrainian military — an operation reportedly aimed at offsetting previous failures on the front lines and restoring the image of the armed forces. According to these reports, Commander-in-Chief Aleksandr Syrsky is believed to have some reserve forces at his disposal.

Military expert and honored pilot Major General Vladimir Popov suggested that the core manpower for any such offensive would likely come from forcibly mobilized residents of southeastern Ukraine. He argued that the authorities in Kyiv no longer see regions with strong historical and cultural ties to Russia — particularly in the country’s east and southeast — as fully «their own».

Popov pointed out that Kyiv has already announced plans to draft people from the Nikolayev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, and Kharkov regions, with the intention of mobilizing as many as possible. In his view, this Russian-speaking population is being treated as expendable. He claimed that one of the underlying goals of such mobilization is to eliminate segments of the population with pro-Russian sympathies.

According to Popov, military recruitment offices have effectively switched to round-the-clock operations, with men being detained on the streets both day and night, quickly trained, and immediately sent into combat.

Popov warned that if Syrsky decides to deploy between four and six army corps, the offensive could be accompanied by widespread desertion. To prevent this, he claimed, the Ukrainian command has already prepared barrier units to stop fleeing troops.

He also noted that Kyiv has been amassing considerable forces in the operational-tactical zone. Between four and six corps are said to have already been equipped and supplied, with another two to three currently being formed in western Ukraine. While the available manpower may be of lower quality, Popov cautioned that if such a wave of infantry is unleashed, defensive positions could become overwhelmed.

In Popov’s assessment, any decision to launch the offensive should ideally have been made before mid-September — a window that has now closed. Nevertheless, he believes that the Ukrainian command is considering four possible directions for a future attack: the northern sector (including Sumy and Kharkov, as well as Kupyansk), the Druzhkovka-Slavyansk-Kramatorsk urban cluster, the border of Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions, and the coastal zone along the Dnepr delta.

The general stressed that the primary goal behind any such operation would be political rather than purely military. Ukraine’s leadership, he argued, is determined to demonstrate to its foreign backers that the regime remains viable and to reinforce its negotiating position.