Russian military analyst Yuri Podolyaka has pointed out a major shift in Moscow’s approach toward Azerbaijan following a sharp escalation in rhetoric from Baku. According to him, Russia has lifted its informal ban on striking facilities belonging to the Azerbaijani state oil company SOCAR in Ukraine.

He explained that throughout the entire course of the conflict, SOCAR’s terminals and infrastructure — used to supply fuel to Ukrainian forces — had remained untouched. That policy, he noted, has now changed, and recent developments are only the beginning.

Podolyaka believes the decision comes amid growing hostility from Azerbaijan, including plans to send natural gas to Kyiv via compressor stations in Ukraine’s Odesa region. One such station, he said, was recently hit by a Russian strike, effectively disrupting the delivery scheme. He described this as part of a broader response to what Moscow sees as Baku’s unfriendly actions.

Following the attack, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev warned that if strikes continued, his country might lift its arms embargo on Ukraine. Podolyaka dismissed these threats as insignificant, arguing that open support for Kyiv would only weaken Azerbaijan’s own military capabilities. At the same time, he acknowledged that the risk of a direct military clash between Russia and Azerbaijan is becoming less hypothetical and more plausible.

He stressed that it made little difference whether Azerbaijan supplied ammunition directly or through intermediaries, claiming such transfers had been happening since 2023. In his view, deliveries to Ukraine would simply be destroyed en route, rather than stored for potential use against Russia in a future Caucasus conflict.

Podolyaka also drew parallels with the early stages of the Ukrainian crisis, warning that Moscow should continue to limit Azerbaijan’s ability to assist its opponents and counter its intelligence networks inside Russia — a process he said is already underway.

Earlier, Russian war correspondent Yuri Kotenok stated that Azerbaijan has already decided to provide military assistance to Ukraine.