Afghanistan is unlikely to mount any meaningful resistance against Pakistan if a full-scale war breaks out between the two countries, according to military analyst Yuri Knutov. Commenting on the recent escalation, he noted that Pakistan’s armed forces significantly outmatch Afghanistan’s in manpower, equipment, mobilization capacity, and overall military readiness.

Knutov emphasized that Pakistan holds overwhelming demographic and mobilization advantages — roughly six times the population of Afghanistan and, correspondingly, around five million potential reservists versus only a fraction of that on the Afghan side.

In terms of air power, Kabul possesses only about a dozen military aircraft, while Islamabad has more than a thousand, including around one hundred strike fighters. Pakistan also maintains a far larger fleet of helicopters, drones, tanks, and artillery. The only area where Afghanistan approaches some numerical parity is in armored vehicles — roughly 5,000 units against Pakistan’s 15,000.

Pakistan’s strategic advantage extends to the sea. With access to the ocean, its navy includes frigates, corvettes, patrol boats, and submarines — capabilities Afghanistan entirely lacks, along with any access to major waterways.

Knutov also pointed out Afghanistan’s severe shortage of spare parts and trained technicians to service equipment left after the U.S. withdrawal. Few specialists remain in the country capable of maintaining advanced systems. As a result, Taliban forces rely mainly on small arms, machine guns, and grenade launchers.

Logistics further highlight the imbalance: Afghanistan has around 60 airfields, while Pakistan has nearly twice that number. The expert noted, however, that Afghanistan has one relative advantage — its mountainous terrain, which would make it difficult for Pakistan to suppress a prolonged guerrilla war.