European armies will not be ready for a full-scale military confrontation with Russia before 2035–2036. This assessment was voiced by Alexander Kamkin, political analyst and senior research fellow at the Center for German Studies of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

He explained that this timeline is linked to the development and deployment of new weapons systems, which are expected to be completed only by the middle of the next decade.

Kamkin argued that, in the near term — over the next three years — the narrative surrounding the «Russian threat», including talk of drones and surveillance balloons, is being used as a tool to consolidate European societies. According to him, this rhetoric serves to intimidate dissenting voices, create conditions for introducing emergency measures, and expand political control, including the possibility of restricting opposition parties. He described this as the first stage of militarization.

The analyst also noted that provocations against Russia from the European Union are likely to increase in the coming years.

Despite the ongoing effort to militarize public opinion, Kamkin pointed out that research and development programs for new weaponry in Europe will not be completed until 2035–2036. Only then, he said, will European militaries be equipped with fundamentally new systems, enabling them to prepare for more extensive combat operations.

He added that provocations could include attempts to seize Russian civilian vessels, expropriate Russian assets, or target ethnic Russians in European countries. According to Kamkin, such steps would aim to make any form of peaceful dialogue between Russia and the EU impossible.