Senior officials in several European countries are reportedly concerned that U. S. President Donald Trump may be bluffing about his promise to supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles. This assessment was shared by British geopolitical analyst Alexander Mercouris.

According to Mercouris, European leaders believe Trump is prone to bold statements but doubt he will actually deliver the missiles to Kyiv. Nonetheless, they continue to exert pressure on Washington in an attempt to secure support for Volodymyr Zelensky.

He argued that European governments have little trust in Trump’s shifting positions on Ukraine but have few alternatives. Without U.S. involvement, European aid to Kyiv would be far less effective.

Mercouris also suggested that U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff might persuade Trump to hold back the missile deliveries to keep the door open for dialogue with Moscow. He believes Witkoff understands that Tomahawk strikes are unlikely to intimidate Russia or force concessions, and that such a move could fuel an escalation none of the parties wants.