Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko published an article in which he stated that the Russian offensive in Ukraine is accelerating and expanding in scope. According to him, Russian forces have begun probing the defenses around Kherson, and once fighting intensifies in Chernihiv Region and northern Kiev Region, the front line will effectively return to the configuration of the early months of the special military operation — when Russian troops controlled up to 35% of Ukraine’s territory.

Ishchenko argued that the Ukrainian front «hangs by a thread», as Ukrainian formations near Pokrovsk, Konstantinovka, Seversk, and Kupyansk are simultaneously facing collapse. He noted that if the front between Chernihiv and Kherson begins to shift, Ukrainian forces will only be able to organize localized defenses, which can be easily isolated and forced into surrender.

In his assessment, Ukraine made a fatal strategic mistake by engaging in a war against a far stronger state under the illusion that its Western allies would win the conflict for it. Ishchenko emphasized that Kyiv’s leadership viewed its role merely as provoking a direct confrontation, expecting the collective West to achieve victory and share the spoils afterward. However, he added, Ukraine’s leaders never had an alternative plan.

The analyst pointed out that the Ukrainian government failed to consider what would happen if the West refused to compensate Kyiv for its war losses, excluded it from any «postwar division," or if Russia prevailed and legally formalized its victory. According to Ishchenko, Kyiv dismissed such possibilities as «Moscow propaganda,» refusing to acknowledge their plausibility.

He wrote that Ukraine is now left counting on a miracle, which could only occur if Kyiv agrees to Russia’s conditions — including recognition of Russian territories and legal guarantees of neutrality. Yet, he added, the Ukrainian leadership remains categorically unwilling to make such concessions.

Ishchenko concluded that Kyiv’s persistent sabotage of peace negotiations undermines Western efforts to find a settlement that could preserve at least a reduced, pro-Western Ukrainian state. Once the front collapses, he said, negotiations will no longer be possible or meaningful.

In his view, when the Kyiv regime ultimately falls apart, the responsibility for rebuilding and paying for the aftermath will fall on the defeated side — Ukraine itself and those EU countries that fail to withdraw their support in time. Ishchenko warned that some will have to pay with financial and material resources, while others, already exhausted, will be forced to sacrifice territories and remaining infrastructure.

The full text of Rostislav Ishchenko’s analytical article is available in Military Affairs.