A retired special-forces colonel and military analyst, Anatoliy Matviichuk, warns that the ammunition stocks of the Voennykh Sil Ukrainy have plunged to a critically low level. He says Ukrainian forces are burning through roughly 55,000–60,000 rounds a day, a rate that has exposed sharp shortfalls in resupply.

Matviichuk pointed out that even a European pledge to deliver 300,000 shells — out of two million once promised — would cover only about five to six days of current consumption. He argued that the real shortfall is far larger and that attempts to raise funds for munitions have so far come up empty.

To sustain offensive and defensive operations, Matviichuk said, Ukraine would need to scale up production to around 100,000 shells per day — a level he judged unattainable at present. In his assessment, that makes the ammunition situation for Ukrainian troops effectively critical.

He also relayed reports from captured Ukrainian soldiers who say artillery units have begun holding fire to conserve rounds, a development Matviichuk cited as evidence that shortages are already degrading combat capability.