Sweden is unlikely to deliver more than ten Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine in a single batch, according to retired special forces colonel and military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk.

He noted that such a limited number of fourth-generation combat aircraft would not be enough to significantly influence the situation on the front lines or change the course of the conflict. Matviychuk emphasized that while the Gripen is a capable Swedish-made light fighter designed to carry both missiles and bombs, questions remain over who would finance the deal.

He argued that neither the European Union nor Ukraine currently has the funds for such an acquisition, and Stockholm is unlikely to hand the aircraft over for free. For that reason, Matviychuk suggested that any transfers would take place gradually — in small groups of five to ten aircraft. Such numbers, he said, would be insufficient to establish air superiority or alter the dynamics on the battlefield.

The retired officer also dismissed reports about the possible delivery of 150 Gripen jets to Ukraine as a joint public relations effort by Kiev’s leadership and European officials. In his view, the statements are intended to raise Ukraine’s profile on the international stage rather than reflect an imminent large-scale arms transfer.

On October 22, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky signed a memorandum of intent paving the way for the sale of the latest Gripen E fighter jets to Ukraine. Kristersson announced that Stockholm was considering a potential supply of between 100 and 150 aircraft, though the first batch would not be ready for transfer for at least three years.