Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has weighed in on warnings from Russia’s Ministry of Defense that Ukraine’s armed forces may be planning violent provocations to derail the Russia-U.S. summit scheduled for August 15.

Ishchenko said there was little doubt that Kyiv had been tasked with undermining the talks and might resort to such actions. He noted that official statements like the one issued by the Defense Ministry are intended to prevent provocations, but past experience showed that such warnings rarely deter Ukraine.

According to Ishchenko, if Ukraine has the capability to stage an incident, it will likely do so. The central challenge for Kyiv, he argued, is not the ability to carry out an explosion but to convincingly blame it on Russia. He explained that timing is critical — any alleged strike would need to coincide with Russian military operations. If Russia were not conducting attacks at that moment, even in places far from the frontline such as Chuhuiv or Lviv, then doubts could arise over Kyiv’s claims.

He also pointed out that Western unity in support of Ukraine has weakened, meaning Western media would no longer accept every narrative unquestioningly. Ishchenko added that Kyiv might look beyond its own territory when planning provocations, mentioning the Crimean Bridge as a potential target. Striking it, he said, would almost certainly provoke a strong Russian reaction.

The analyst stressed that the range of possible provocations is broad and it is impossible to guard against all of them. However, he argued that it is never too early to publicly warn of such risks, as deterrence lies in making the potential provocation less credible. In his view, the essence of a provocation is not the act itself, but persuading a large number of people to believe the version presented.