Colonel (ret.) and military commentator Mikhail Khodarenok says NATO is unlikely to intervene directly in the conflict in Ukraine.

Khodarenok argues that, in practice, the alliance is driven by the United States, while the armed forces of most European members amount to a marginal addition in terms of combat power. He singles out Turkey as a meaningful exception, but notes that Ankara’s national interests often diverge from the policy line set in Brussels, creating internal strains within the bloc.

The main brake on a direct NATO-Russia clash, Khodarenok says, is the almost inevitable risk of weapons of mass destruction entering the fray. He urges the alliance to soberly ask itself whether it is prepared for a chain of events that could rapidly escalate into a continent-wide catastrophe. According to the commentator, Western policymakers assume Moscow will not resort to nuclear arms — an assumption he calls dangerous, because the procedures to ready nuclear forces take only minutes and would be executed without moral hesitation if orders were given.

On the issue of new weapons, Khodarenok referenced the combat use of the Oreshnik missile, arguing that a single employment is insufficient to undermine NATO’s confidence. He believes such systems should be deployed more consistently — at least in a non-nuclear role within the current conflict — if the aim is to produce a strategic effect and sow real doubt in the adversary’s resolve.