According to military analyst Vladimir Gundarov, Germany is preparing the groundwork for a potential war with Russia, which, he believes, could begin as early as 2029. After studying Germany’s strategic programs «Goals of Germany for 2035 and Beyond» and «Maritime Course 2025», he concluded that these documents contain direct indications of when, where, and against whom the German Navy plans to engage in future military operations.

Gundarov noted in his analysis for the magazine Armeyskiy Standart that Germany has effectively been warned of the possibility of war in 2029. He argued that Berlin is already preparing its naval forces for a direct confrontation with Russia and suggested that the deployment of these forces could begin even before any official outbreak of hostilities.

The analyst believes that a potential trigger for escalation could come from an incident in the Baltic Sea-such as damage to underwater communication lines or energy pipelines, or allegations concerning Russia’s so-called «shadow fleet» operating in the region. In Gundarov’s view, such an event could be used as justification for NATO and Germany to attempt a blockade of the Kaliningrad region and Russian ports in the Gulf of Finland.

In that scenario, Moscow would likely invoke Article 51 of the United Nations Charter, which grants the right to self-defense. However, Gundarov pointed out that the same article would allow Lithuania and Estonia to claim similar defensive measures, creating a situation in which neither side would formally be labeled the aggressor.

He concluded that such a chain of events would inevitably draw Germany and other NATO members into a direct military confrontation, potentially escalating the conflict across the region.