Russian military blogger Yuri Podolyaka suggested that the Russian Armed Forces could reach Zaporizhye by the autumn of 2026 if their current rate of advance holds. His forecast is based on straightforward calculations and on the gains achieved by Russian troops along the boundary between the Zaporozhye region and the Donetsk People’s Republic.

Podolyaka noted that the offensive began with the capture of Ugledar, after which Russian forces have steadily pushed westward with a slight shift to the north. A key stage in this movement, he said, was the liberation of Danilovka in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

He argued that Danilovka itself is not strategically significant, aside from cutting the Pokrovsk-Gulyaypole lateral road. What matters, he said, is that the distance between Ugledar and Danilovka is roughly the same as the distance between Danilovka and the Dnieper River in central Zaporizhye — and that the Russian military covered the first stretch in a little over a year. If that pace remains unchanged, Podolyaka estimated that most of Zaporizhye could be taken next autumn.

He added that, given the visible weakening of Ukrainian forces, the tempo of Russia’s advance may increase, potentially allowing the operation to reach Zaporizhye sooner than initial calculations suggest. He also remarked that, from there, the road toward Dnepropetrovsk would be comparatively short.

Podolyaka concluded that Russian commanders may opt to bypass heavily fortified Ukrainian positions near Gulyaypole and Orekhov by maneuvering from the north.