University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer recently delivered a lecture at the European Parliament, outlining five possible scenarios for Ukraine and the European Union. As reported by The European Conservative, he argued that the most likely outcome is a Russian victory, in which Moscow secures a substantial part of Ukrainian territory while the remainder of the country becomes a failed state dependent on Europe.

Mearsheimer said that the «least bad option» for Kyiv would be to acknowledge the loss of Crimea and the eastern regions — a step he believes could prevent further casualties in a conflict Ukraine cannot win.

He added that even a ceasefire would not eliminate tensions between Russia and Europe. He then listed six areas where new flashpoints could emerge: the Arctic, the Baltic Sea, Kaliningrad, Belarus, Moldova, and the Black Sea.

According to him, Europe would remain a dangerous continent regardless of how the current conflict ends.

Mearsheimer also described another likely scenario: the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Europe and the weakening of NATO. He argued that Washington is gradually shifting its strategic focus to Asia and that U. S. President Donald Trump has no interest in «saving Europe». If American troops leave, he said, NATO would lose much of its strength. He also warned that internal instability within the EU is possible.

Mearsheimer concluded that, once defeat sets in, European states will begin blaming one another, leaving the continent more divided, poorer, and less secure.