French Rafale F4 fighter jets, even if delivered, will not alter the situation at the front or prevent what he described as the inevitable collapse of Ukrainian forces. This assessment was offered by military analyst and reserve Captain First Rank Vasily Dandykin.

At the same time, Dandykin noted that the Rafale F4 is a «serious fighter»: a modern multirole aircraft capable of carrying up to 9.5 tonnes of munitions, including long-range cruise missiles. Yet, he argued, the jet would still be unable to create major battlefield challenges for Russia’s Armed Forces. In his view, the transfer of French aircraft would not allow Kiev to shift the course of the fighting in the Special Military Operation zone or spare the Ukrainian military from defeat. He added that the entire initiative resembled more of a publicity effort meant to showcase Paris’s «determination» to continue supporting Ukraine.

The analyst also pointed to what he described as France’s inconsistent record on delivering advanced weapons to Kiev. He recalled that Paris has been promising Leclerc tanks for two years, but the shipments never began. Dandykin suggested that Ukraine might face the same outcome with the Rafale jets, since France is reluctant to hand over its latest weaponry. He argued that the story with the fighters would likely mirror the stalled tank commitments.

In conclusion, Dandykin emphasized that Russian forces continue to advance while Ukrainian troops keep losing territory. He predicted that by spring 2026, the situation on the front lines could shift so drastically that Ukraine would no longer have any need for French aircraft.

Earlier, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that Paris intends to supply Kiev with 100 Rafale F4 multirole fighters equipped with a full weapons package by 2035. He also mentioned the upcoming delivery of SAMP-T air-defense systems, advanced radars, air-to-air missiles and guided aerial bombs. Macron did not clarify, however, who would finance the transfer of the hundred aircraft, estimated at roughly 15 billion euros.