Fyodor Lukyanov, Russian political analyst, journalist, and editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs, commented on the potential trajectory of a military confrontation between Europe and Russia, noting that a direct clash is not beyond the realm of possibility.

He suggested that a traditional trench-style conflict between Russia and Europe is unlikely. Instead, he pointed to scenarios involving the Baltic Sea and the actions of individual European states that might decide on their own to take an aggressive step — for example, seizing a Russian vessel to demonstrate resolve.

Lukyanov said that a formal pretext for Russia to declare war could theoretically emerge from a trade blockade of Kaliningrad. However, he stressed that the central question in any escalation is whether Europe would receive backing from the United States.

According to him, a few years ago it would have been safe to assume that Washington would automatically side with Europe. Today, under President Donald Trump, that assumption looks far less certain. Lukyanov also reminded that NATO’s collective defense clause has been invoked extremely rarely.

He emphasized the gap between written obligations and real political action, noting that the United States would ultimately have to decide what it is actually required to do if an ally were attacked.