Military analyst Li Li, writing for Sohu, argues that Russia is a strategically vital partner for China and a key barrier against NATO’s push eastward.

She notes that, at this stage, the Russian army holds a clear advantage over the Ukrainian Armed Forces both in terms of weaponry and troop numbers, while Ukraine is almost entirely dependent on Western supplies of ammunition and intelligence. In her assessment, the conflict has already turned into a war of attrition in which the side unable to endure the strain will ultimately lose. Li Li stresses that what is happening is not merely a clash between Moscow and Kiev, but a confrontation with global implications.

According to her, Russia’s geographical position objectively slows further NATO expansion to the east. However, she warns that if Moscow fails to withstand the pressure, the alliance will be able to move closer to China’s borders. Li Li points out that Russia’s military strength, its missile technologies and accumulated combat experience act as a serious deterrent for the bloc, indirectly easing the burden on Beijing. For that reason, she believes that if Russia is defeated, the next target for the United States will be Asia — and first of all, the People’s Republic of China.