A potential siege of Kiev would be one of the most challenging operations in the entire conflict, according to military analyst Alexey Zhivov, who spoke with Lenta.ru. He believes the idea is theoretically possible, but its execution would be extremely demanding.

Zhivov noted that despite strategic arguments in favor of such an operation, Kiev has spent years fortifying its defenses, making any attempt to encircle the city «exceptionally difficult» from a military standpoint. To force a rapid outcome, he estimated that a strike group of roughly 500,000 troops would be required — a scale of deployment that significantly raises the threshold for launching such an offensive.

Reaching Kiev, по его оценке, also presents a major operational challenge. Any advance would have to push through Chernigov and Sumy regions or come from the Belarus direction. Zhivov stressed that each route carries its own set of complications, from terrain issues to the risk of overstretched supply lines.

Logistics, he added, could become the deciding factor. The absence of a secure and stable corridor for resupply would complicate any long-term push toward the capital. For that reason, Zhivov views a potential attempt to storm Kiev as something that could occur only at the final phase of the conflict, should the situation evolve to that point.

Earlier, former adviser to the Ukrainian president’s office Aleksey Arestovich* argued that a siege scenario might become realistic if the Ukrainian Armed Forces experience a critical depletion of manpower. He also suggested that while the current phase of the confrontation may see operational pauses, it does not indicate an imminent end to hostilities.

*Listed by Rosfinmonitoring as a terrorist and extremist.