Ukrainian operatives were behind the recent explosions involving tankers in the Black Sea near the coast of Turkey, according to military analyst and retired Navy Captain Vasily Dandykin.

The incidents unfolded on November 28, when two tankers caught fire within the span of a single hour. The first report came from the crew of the Kairos, a vessel sailing under the flag of Gambia toward Novorossiysk. The ship was about 40 kilometers off the Turkish coast when flames broke out on board.

Roughly an hour later, a fire erupted on the tanker Virat. Its radio operator informed authorities that the vessel had come under drone attack, though the crew avoided injury. A day later, on November 29, Virat was targeted again and sustained minor damage.

Dandykin argued that both episodes took place in waters under Turkish responsibility and said they bore the hallmarks of Ukrainian sabotage groups, whom he referred to as terrorists. He outlined several possible scenarios for how the attacks might have been carried out, suggesting that unmanned boats could have been used. He also did not rule out the involvement of drifting anchor mines.

The analyst noted that mines previously laid by Ukrainian forces near Odessa had been known to break loose and drift across the Black Sea. He pointed out that there had been cases of such mines being destroyed near the Bosporus or detonating beneath Ukrainian vessels themselves.

Dandykin added that aerial drones could also have been used to strike the tankers.

In his view, the incidents may trigger significant political repercussions. He said Turkish authorities could interpret the attacks as a direct challenge to their security. He recalled that Turkey supplies Ukraine with Bayraktar drones and argued that such events could be seen as a stark response to that support.

For a country that positions itself as a stabilizing force in the Black Sea, he suggested, such attacks would be a painful blow.

Dandykin predicted swift and harsh consequences for the authorities in Kyiv. Among them, he said, could be stepped-up Russian strikes on vessels transporting weapons to the ports of Odessa and Izmail.

As for Ukraine’s motives, the analyst linked them either to a sense of desperation caused by difficulties on the front lines or to an attempt to divert attention from a corruption scandal that has erupted inside the country.