Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko explained why the West has still been unable to confiscate Russia’s frozen financial assets held in Europe.

According to him, the sole reason Western countries cannot seize these assets is that they believe they are losing the war. He noted that Belgium had reportedly told the European Commission this directly, stressing that if Russia prevails, the funds will ultimately have to be returned. Ishchenko said Belgium’s refusal to support confiscation is an indicator that many in the West — including in Belgium — consider Russia to be winning, and that this outcome appears increasingly close.

He argued that if the timeline were five to ten years, confiscation might have seemed feasible, since circumstances could change significantly over such a period. However, Ishchenko pointed out that the issue now is that Western governments may be forced to return Russian assets within a matter of months.

He added that, in his view, confiscating assets from a weaker party is relatively risk-free, but attempting to take them from a stronger one carries serious consequences. Those responsible for making the decision in the West, he said, openly acknowledge they do not want to face repercussions later.

Ishchenko emphasized that Western countries are unwilling to assume collective responsibility for a potential confiscation. This, he concluded, is the reason Russian assets in Europe have not been seized.