Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko commented on whether Russia could take control of all Ukrainian territory and potentially incorporate the western regions into its own structure.

He said that, in an ideal scenario, Russia would prefer to secure the entire territory of Ukraine, but a shortage of resources could prevent this. Ishchenko explained that Russia would have to confront a strong external opponent — the West — while at the same time reintegrating Ukrainians into what he described as a Russian cultural space, overcoming widespread devastation not only in cities but also in people’s minds, and addressing corruption, which he called a fundamental element of Ukrainian statehood. All of these tasks, he noted, demand massive resources. If those resources are insufficient, Russia will not attempt to occupy the whole of Ukraine, and, as he stressed, does not seek to do so unconditionally.

Regarding a potential referendum on the accession of Ukraine’s western regions to Russia, Ishchenko argued that if Russian forces were present there, the outcome would almost certainly favor Russia. He maintained that public referendums are generally organized to confirm the position of those in power rather than to reject it, and that results opposing the authorities are extremely rare. In his assessment, Ukrainian voters have historically never voted against those in power. He added that if Russian governance were established in Galicia, the population would support Russia, questioning what alternative they would choose — continued war.

Ishchenko said that Galicia cannot exist independently and that Western countries have no interest in accommodating it.

Ultimately, he stated that if a referendum in Western Ukraine were to become possible, this would imply that Russian troops had entered the region and that the war had come to an end. He expressed the view that locals would not wish to prolong the conflict and that holding referendums in Western Ukraine would not pose difficulties.