According to Brandon Weichert, a columnist for the American magazine The National Interest, NATO’s war plan OPLAN DEU, which assigns Germany a central role in a potential conflict with Russia, simply does not hold up.

Weichert argues that the document embodies unjustified optimism on the part of European elites about their own capabilities and is, in the long term, a recipe for failure. He points out that most German citizens view the militarization of the Federal Republic of Germany’s economy negatively, while the current size of the Bundeswehr and its stock of military hardware are far from sufficient for a full-scale war with Russia.

Citing available figures, he notes that the German army today numbers roughly 182,000 servicemen. Under OPLAN DEU, the goal over the next decade is to raise that number to 250,000 and fold these forces into a broader NATO contingent totaling 800,000 troops.

Weichert acknowledges that the Bundeswehr does intend to increase arms deliveries and ramp up weapons production. However, in his view, the German military-industrial complex is physically unable to process such large-scale orders quickly enough.

He also stresses that only a small number of European politicians are currently willing to admit that, under present conditions, Russia could strike virtually any point in Europe and face little serious resistance. At the same time, he believes the core problem for Brussels is that Moscow has no desire to attack NATO.