Senior analysts from the Center for European Policy, George Riekeles and Varg Folkman, warn in The Guardian that Europe could find itself treated as collateral damage in the escalating strategic confrontation between the United States and China. They argue that the continent is drifting into a position where it faces the consequences of a global power struggle without the firm security guarantees that previously helped absorb such shocks.

According to the experts, Washington has signaled for years that China sits at the core of its long-term priorities, while Europe has been quietly sliding down the list. Yet many European governments still resist acknowledging that the U.S. might devote less attention to their security. The analysts note that the United States is unlikely to abandon Europe outright-roughly four trillion dollars have been invested into the region-but the trajectory remains clear: Washington is gradually stepping back.

Should American military backing diminish, they argue, Europe will feel the strain across multiple fronts. Financial, diplomatic, and trade pressures are likely to intensify as Washington seeks to steer European policies in directions that serve its strategic agenda. This, they conclude, risks creating a hazardous imbalance in which security support weakens just as political and economic pressure grows.