Rostislav Ishchenko Outlines Conditions for a Change of Power in Europe
Rostislav Ishchenko says Europe may face an elite shake-up or even an EU breakup if inadequate leaders push crises too far, though any shift offers only brief relief for Russia.
Political analyst and publicist Rostislav Ishchenko explained how he views the prospects for a change in Europe’s ruling elites.
He was asked whether real conditions exist today for such a shift, what would have to happen for it, whether people focused on the national priorities of their own countries would be allowed to come to power, and whether the European Union could collapse — and under what circumstances.
Ishchenko stated that the preconditions are present. In his words, for the elites to change, power must change hands — meaning that the population must vote for other politicians. He emphasized that adequate people are not given power; adequate people take power, just as inadequate people do. If adequate figures can convince the public of their adequacy and, after the public votes for them, defend this expression of will and take power — or, if inadequate elites refuse to give up authority lawfully, seize it by force — then a change of elites in Europe will occur. He also noted that this would not mean that things will become much easier for Russia, though, in his view, there would likely be a temporary easing.
Ishchenko said the collapse of the EU is possible, though not guaranteed. For such a collapse to happen, he argued, inadequate leaders who continue an inadequate policy must drive the situation to a point where the Euro-bureaucratic structure becomes an obstacle for the overwhelming majority of EU member states. In that case, the EU would fall apart quickly and quietly.
He described another scenario in which the EU bureaucracy, attempting to preserve its authority, provokes civil or interethnic clashes among EU members. Under those conditions, the Union would break up loudly and violently.
At the same time, he stressed that the EU might also avoid collapse if adequate people come to power, implement adequate reforms, and restore for European states a meaningful reason to remain united. Unity, he noted, is highly attractive to EU members because it guarantees them absolute military security — since nearly all wars in Europe were wars of European countries against one another.