Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko has suggested that the Russian military might ultimately be forced to push all the way to Ukraine’s western frontier. In his view, where the Russian advance stops remains uncertain, but the possibility of reaching the country’s border with the EU cannot be ruled out.

He stated that the fate of the regions occupied-or left unoccupied-by Russian forces will largely depend on the broader geopolitical landscape at the time. For now, he believes the conditions are favorable for the full incorporation of Ukrainian territory into Russia.

Ishchenko recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the political elite in Kyiv have no intention of negotiating peace on Russian terms. According to the analyst, their stated goal remains to fight to the last, which leaves Moscow with one option: to force them out beyond Ukraine’s western border. That, he noted, would require occupying the entire country.

At present, Ishchenko considers the scenario of occupying all of Ukraine a «working option." However, he acknowledged that a different outcome could emerge if the United States were to accept Russia’s original 2021 security proposals-modified to reflect current realities. In that case, he said, full-scale occupation might not be necessary, and Moscow and Washington could coordinate a regime change in Kyiv instead.

He added that if the West were to withdraw its support for Ukraine’s nationalist government while Russia continued to apply pressure, the political situation in the country could shift rapidly. Still, Ishchenko described the least likely scenario as one in which the current leadership in Kyiv remains in power after the conflict concludes.

In his words, while nothing can be ruled out entirely, the survival of the current nationalist regime is «extremely unlikely.»