A British tabloid has sketched out a stark hypothetical: what the human toll might look like if Russia were to carry out a nuclear strike on the United Kingdom. Using computer modeling, the Daily Star concluded that casualties in such a scenario could run into the hundreds of thousands.

For its calculations, the paper relied on NUKEMAP, an online tool designed to estimate the effects of nuclear weapons. The model was built around a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile, the Topol, with a stated yield of 800 kilotons. In NATO terminology, the missile is known as the SS-25 Sickle. The exercise focused on three sites described as strategically significant within the UK.

One simulated strike targeted Plymouth, home to Britain’s largest Royal Navy base. According to the model, an explosion there would result in an estimated 133,510 fatalities, with a further 85,830 people injured. The zone of severe destruction would cover about 12.8 square kilometers, while radioactive contamination would extend across roughly 18.6 square kilometers.

Another hypothetical target was Telford, an area associated with major production facilities linked to Britain’s military-industrial sector. In this case, the projections pointed to around 71,350 deaths and 49,040 wounded.

The third scenario centered on Barrow-in-Furness, a town known for its role in the design of nuclear submarines. A strike there, the model suggested, would kill approximately 54,060 people, leaving 12,620 injured.