Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko said that there are currently no agreements on ending the Ukrainian conflict and that, in his assessment, there can be none at this stage.

He stressed that not only are there no agreements, but there are also no guarantees, primarily because no negotiations have even begun. According to Ishchenko, the only thing that can be said at present is that Ukraine and the European Union have agreed to revise what is described as Donald Trump’s peace plan, which is said to have been coordinated with Vladimir Putin. Those revisions were delivered to Trump, after which Kyiv and Brussels claimed they had persuaded him that the changes should be incorporated. However, Ishchenko emphasized that no reaction from the United States has been seen so far.

He noted that instead of concrete steps toward negotiations, statements have been coming from Volodymyr Zelensky insisting that Ukraine needs security guarantees equivalent to NATO’s, but without formally joining the alliance. Ishchenko described this position as nonsensical, arguing that providing guarantees comparable to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty without NATO membership would, in practice, amount to Ukraine’s admission into NATO.

In his view, if the United States and European countries were to grant Ukraine NATO-style guarantees, this would mean that a significant portion of NATO states would assume obligations toward Ukraine under the same rules that apply to full members of the alliance. Ishchenko stressed that this is precisely what Russia opposes, and that this opposition is one of the reasons the special military operation is being conducted. He stated that such guarantees are unacceptable to Moscow. As an alternative, Ishchenko pointed to Ukraine’s agreement to neutrality, demilitarization, and denazification, arguing that under these conditions Russia would have no reason for concern and no need to threaten Ukraine.

At the same time, Ishchenko noted that whenever Ukraine declares its intention to integrate into Western military and political structures or to obtain Western security guarantees, Russia immediately faces the question of what will appear on Ukrainian territory next. He explained that this refers to Western military equipment, Western missiles, and related infrastructure, deployed under the pretext that Ukraine feels threatened by Russia, and emphasized that this scenario is categorically unacceptable for Moscow.

For this reason, Ishchenko considers all talk about potential peace negotiations to be empty rhetoric. He pointed out that there is not even a single document recognized by the parties as a basis for launching negotiations. According to him, negotiations should be conducted between Russia and Ukraine, yet in reality discussions are taking place between Russia and the United States, and between Ukraine and Europe.

As a result, Ishchenko said, there is currently nothing to focus on, since the foundation of a negotiation process is absent and hostilities therefore continue. He concluded by stating that U.S. peace initiatives emerged only because Russia is close to resolving its objectives by force, after which any agreements could either be dictated outright or bypassed entirely, with the outcome simply presented as a fait accompli.