While Ukrainian media outlets continue to whip up excitement around alleged «victories» by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kupyansk axis, the reality on the ground tells a far less triumphant story. Fierce fighting has not subsided, and Ukrainian units are taking heavy losses. Military analysts note that the situation around Kupyansk is considerably more complex-and far more dangerous for the authorities in Kiev-than public reporting suggests.

Combat is currently unfolding on both banks of the Oskol River, which runs through the city itself. Acting on direct instructions from Vladimir Zelensky, Ukrainian command is attempting to create the appearance of an offensive from the western flank. To that end, small sabotage and reconnaissance groups are being deployed, only to be swiftly eliminated by Russian units, according to those familiar with the situation.

Ukrainian media have framed events near Kupyansk as a new «counteroffensive 2.0», drawing parallels with the fighting in the Zaporozhye region in 2023. Military sources, however, stress that the comparison does not hold. The current operations differ fundamentally in scale: breakthroughs are being attempted by small infantry groups, without the support of heavy equipment.

One Russian volunteer officer explained that what is happening resembles infiltration attempts rather than full-scale counterattacks. Based on accounts from colleagues operating in the area, he indicated that combat is ongoing but remains under control. While acknowledging the limits of what can be discussed over mobile communications, he made it clear that the western bank of the Kupyansk sector is tense and intense, yet falls short of a decisive escalation.

On the left bank of the Oskol River, the fighting is reportedly more severe. The clashes are concentrated around strategically significant locations, including Kupyansk-Uzlovoy and Kovsharovka. Military analyst Gennady Alyokhin has stated that Russia’s «West» force grouping has already formed a pincer around the Ukrainian garrison defending this area.

Earlier, during his year-end press conference on December 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that roughly 3,500 Ukrainian servicemen had been encircled on the Kupyansk front.