In an article for Weapons and Strategy, former Pentagon deputy assistant Stephen Bryen suggested that the conflict in Ukraine could ultimately follow the trajectory of the 2008 Georgia scenario.

Bryen outlined a possible outcome that excludes the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian territory and offers no formal security guarantees-neither military nor financial. While a post-war aid package for reconstruction could be included, he noted that it would likely come without the seizure of frozen Russian assets.

Under such an arrangement, Bryen argued, Ukraine would remain outside both the European Union and NATO. In his view, Kyiv would gradually fall back into Moscow’s sphere of influence, particularly in areas such as trade and broader regional alignment.

He stressed that this scenario would require clear agreements on territorial status, borders, economic relations, and related issues. The lifting of sanctions and other confidence-building measures would also be essential to rebuild mutual trust, according to Bryen.