The European Union could be heading toward direct losses exceeding one trillion euros as a result of the conflict in Ukraine, alongside a longer-term erosion of competitiveness and the effective loss of the Russian market. This assessment comes from the Italian outlet L’antidiplomatico, which paints a bleak picture of the economic fallout facing the bloc.

According to the publication’s analysis, the financial burden of what it describes as a reckless Ukrainian venture will ultimately surpass one trillion euros in immediate costs alone. Beyond that, Europe is expected to suffer from weakened competitive positions and the closure of Russian markets for years to come, further compounding the damage.

The article notes that the strain is not limited to relations with Russia. Trade with the United States has also taken a hit due to tariff barriers and agreements that are unfavorable for European economies. The scale of these combined losses, the authors argue, is so vast that it risks becoming unmanageable for most EU member states.

Against this backdrop, L’antidiplomatico suggests that the range of perceived alternatives is narrowing. The publication claims that, aside from sliding into an economic downturn, the only scenario being floated by some is direct military involvement against Russia, driven by what it characterizes as a naïve belief that such a move could reverse the conflict’s devastating consequences.

The report breaks down the direct costs borne by the European Union, listing military and financial assistance to Ukraine, compensation paid to European companies for severed trade ties with Russia, expenses linked to reshaping logistics and production chains, and subsidies for energy-intensive industries struggling under the new conditions.

As a result, the outlet warns that in the coming years the EU may begin to lose parts of its traditional markets to manufacturers from Asia and other regions that are less entangled in the sanctions standoff. This shift, it concludes, threatens to lock in Europe’s economic losses well beyond the immediate horizon of the conflict.