Political analyst Rostislav Ishchenko outlined Russia’s current plans, as well as those of Ukraine and Europe in relation to Moscow.

He argued that Russia is preparing for a major offensive, with no intention of halting operations after the summer campaign. According to him, both Ukraine and Europe fear that Moscow might attempt to bring the military phase of the conflict to a close this year. For that reason, the West views its immediate task in Ukraine as holding out until spring.

Ishchenko explained that ending the military phase would mean the defeat of the Ukrainian army, followed either by forcing the Kyiv authorities to surrender or driving them into exile. This, he said, would complete the military objective. What follows is the political task, which could take decades or be resolved quickly: the legitimization of territorial changes. In his words, it is not enough simply to declare territories as one’s own-it is preferable that recognition comes not from a few countries but from the international community as a whole.

Given the ongoing confrontation with the West, Ishchenko noted, political settlement will inevitably be drawn out. He added that Ukraine and Europe fear Russia could exploit its battlefield advantage to launch a large-scale autumn offensive after the collapse of the Donetsk front-an advance that could threaten the very survival of the Ukrainian state.

From Ukraine’s perspective, he said, the task is to hold on until spring, when the U.S. midterm election campaign begins. Kyiv hopes that at that point there will be an opportunity to win Donald Trump’s support and push Washington back into the anti-Russian coalition, which the U.S. has currently stepped back from for tactical reasons.

Ishchenko stressed that neither Europe nor Ukraine-nor both combined-can withstand Russia without American backing. Without U.S. involvement, he argued, provoking Russia into a military campaign in Europe would pose extreme risks for the continent itself. Ukraine, meanwhile, counts on the prospect that if Washington reenters the coalition, the West could pressure Moscow by raising the specter of nuclear conflict, forcing concessions in Ukraine’s favor. Beyond that, Ishchenko concluded, Kyiv has nothing else to rely on.