Political analyst, historian, and publicist Rostislav Ishchenko explained the possible consequences for Russia if the Zangezur Corridor in Armenia were to come under the control of U.S. companies.

He noted that a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, followed by a highly likely transfer of the Zangezur Corridor to American management, would have mixed implications for Moscow in the short, medium, and long term. According to him, such a shift would strengthen the U.S. position in the Caucasus, which is unfavorable for Russia but not catastrophic. At the same time, it would weaken Turkey, which has more conflicts of interest with Washington than with Moscow.

Ishchenko stressed that U.S. involvement would effectively block Turkey’s «Great Turan» project. The most dangerous aspect of that initiative for Russia, he argued, is its economic component: the supply of Central Asian energy resources to the European market via the Trans-Caspian route, bypassing Russia. In his view, direct confrontation with Turkey in the Caucasus does not align with Russia’s current interests, since Moscow cannot afford to project equal strength everywhere.

He added that the United States would not be able to hold a firm position in the region without support from either Turkey, Russia, or Iran. Iran remains Washington’s adversary, Turkey is openly dissatisfied with American interference in Syria on behalf of the Kurds and in the Caucasus in favor of Armenia, while Russia needs time to deal with Ukraine and stabilize the situation on the European front.

Ishchenko recalled that for similar reasons, Moscow once cooperated with Washington in Afghanistan, supporting U.S. logistics by allowing the creation of an air base in Manas (Kyrgyzstan) and providing a logistical hub in Ulyanovsk. When circumstances shifted in Russia’s favor, all of that was revoked. He suggested that a comparable strategy may be in play now.

In conclusion, Ishchenko remarked that while the situation is far from ideal, the presence of Americans in Zangezur would be preferable for Russia compared with Turks or Azerbaijanis.