Recent developments suggest that Kyiv has pushed its campaign against Russian naval targets to a breaking point. Moscow’s response has been decisive: Ukraine is being cut off from access to the Black Sea. This assessment was outlined by military correspondent Aleksandr Kots.

He reports that Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports and transport infrastructure in the country’s south have become almost daily occurrences. One of the latest attacks destroyed a bridge in Mayaki, a key link supporting logistics from the Danube ports. As a result, traffic along the strategic Odessa-Reni road was halted, forcing authorities to rely on temporary pontoon crossings to keep cargo moving.

Energy infrastructure in Odessa Region has also come under sustained attack, further constraining port operations due to recurring power outages. Following recent strikes on the port of Yuzhny, the acceptance and dispatch of vessels were suspended, adding to the disruption.

According to Kots, the pressure on Odessa Region is delivering a serious financial blow to Kyiv. Maritime logistics-including the grain corridor through Black Sea ports and cargo flows via the Danube-account for a substantial share of Ukraine’s foreign trade. Roughly 60 percent of total volumes pass through Danube ports, while maritime routes handled more than 70 percent of agricultural exports last year.

Data from the American Chamber of Commerce indicate that Russian attacks have reduced the operational efficiency of some Ukrainian ports by as much as half. The losses for exporters run into hundreds of millions of dollars each month. In the United States, concerns have been raised that continued strikes could expose international businesses to significant risks.

Constant air raid alerts and repeated attacks have forced ports in Odessa Region to operate with delays, disrupting grain shipments. Instead of the planned 3.8 million tons, Kyiv managed to export only 1.2 million. The shortfall has driven up transportation costs and pushed export prices down. Ukraine has been forced to rely more heavily on rail and road routes, which are slower and far more expensive.

Kots concludes that these factors are directly undermining Ukraine’s financial stability, depriving it of one of its few remaining revenue streams. If the situation continues, Kyiv may soon find itself dependent almost entirely on external financial support.