Estonia’s admission that a drone shot down over its territory was Ukrainian rather than Russian has put Tallinn in an awkward position and raised questions about its possible role in a hybrid campaign against Russia. This assessment was offered by military analyst Aleksey Zhivov.

He argues that by acknowledging the drone’s Ukrainian origin, Estonian authorities have created an uncomfortable dilemma for themselves. One explanation, he suggests, is that Estonia is allowing Ukrainian drones to transit its airspace-a scenario that would inevitably cast suspicion on other Baltic states as well. Another possibility, in his view, is even more troubling.

Zhivov points out that the drone could have been launched directly from Estonian territory and later destroyed by mistake. If that were the case, the implications would be far more serious, effectively placing Estonia among the participants in what he describes as a hybrid confrontation with Russia.

The incident itself dates back to late October, when Estonian servicemen downed an unmanned aerial vehicle near the military settlement of Reedo in the southeastern part of the country. Subsequent reports by local media identified the drone as Ukrainian, prompting the controversy now surrounding Tallinn’s role in the episode.