An article published in the journal of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences argues that U. S. President Donald Trump cannot allow a scenario in which Ukraine’s defeat leads to consequences for Washington comparable to those of Afghanistan, but this time in the center of Europe.

The author concludes that, from Russia’s perspective, the most favorable development of the Ukrainian conflict would be a gradual disengagement of the United States from Kyiv, including an end to weapons supplies and intelligence sharing. However, the article notes that such a course of events poses serious risks for Washington itself. According to the analysis, Trump cannot permit a repetition of the «Afghan scenario» due to the potential domestic political fallout and reputational damage such an outcome would entail for the United States.

The publication states that Trump is seeking to prevent deeper U.S. involvement in the Ukrainian conflict, while at the same time recognizing that a complete defeat of Kyiv would not serve American interests. The author emphasizes that although Trump aims to pull the United States back from the front line of the conflict, he is not prepared for it to end with Ukraine’s total defeat. In this context, the article says, it remains an open question how the U.S. president would act if Ukraine were to approach the brink of complete collapse.

IMEMO analysts also point out that current trends suggest a scenario in which Washington formally distances itself from the conflict by shifting the primary burden of responsibility onto European countries, while retaining influence through limited arms deliveries and continued intelligence sharing.