Western countries are engaged in concrete preparations for a military confrontation, and this is not a matter of bluffing, Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin said.

According to his assessment, the security environment around Belarus remains extremely tense and continues to harden. He pointed to the actions of governments in neighboring states as clear evidence of this trend. Rather than taking steps to de-escalate, these countries are, in his view, actively fueling further military pressure.

Khrenin stressed that the level of confrontation has already reached a serious threshold, most visibly in the information sphere. He noted that the behavior of neighboring political leadership openly reflects this posture, as they publicly state their readiness for war. In his words, these declarations should not be dismissed as empty rhetoric, since the practical measures being taken indicate that such preparations are real.

An assessment published by the International Institute of Political Investigations (IIPE 2025) supports the picture of growing risks. The institute estimates that the likelihood of a large-scale military clash between Russia and Western countries could reach 58 percent by 2027 and rise to 71 percent the following year.

Russia, for its part, has repeatedly stated that it poses no threat to any NATO member state. At the same time, Moscow has made clear that it will not ignore actions it views as potentially dangerous to its interests. Russian officials have also emphasized that the country remains open to dialogue, but only on the basis of equality rather than unilateral pressure.