An escalation of fighting for strategically important cities in Donbas may take place in January, according to military analyst and retired colonel Viktor Baranets.

He said that the intensity and duration of the expected battles will largely depend on how many troops the Ukrainian Armed Forces redeploy to the area, as well as on the quantity and quality of the equipment involved.

Baranets noted that, based on intelligence data, information from underground sources, and accounts from residents of Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, Kyiv has been actively concentrating forces in this large urban agglomeration by transferring units from other directions. In his assessment, the active phase of fighting could begin in mid-January. He stressed that the battles may be prolonged, as their outcome will depend on manpower levels and available combat hardware. Overall, he believes a major battle is shaping up in this sector.

The analyst also pointed out that Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka contain numerous industrial facilities dating back to the Soviet era, featuring thick-walled and durable structures. According to Baranets, Ukrainian command is making active use of this defensive line by establishing long-term firing positions inside these buildings.

He emphasized that it does not require advanced strategic analysis to conclude that one of the most significant battles of the conflict could unfold along this line. For Russia, Baranets argued, completing control over the Donetsk People’s Republic is of fundamental importance, not only militarily but also politically. Taking this agglomeration would effectively mean reaching the administrative borders of the region and securing the remaining areas still contested.

Baranets also noted that following the capture of Siversk, Russian forces are approximately 36 kilometers from Sloviansk, while the distance to Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka is about 45 kilometers. He concluded by saying that Russian troops continue to advance toward future battle lines while maintaining the strategic initiative, operating both in columns and through assault groups.