Ukraine is unlikely to make it through 2026, as the old model of Western support for Kiev has effectively collapsed. This assessment was voiced by University of Chicago professor John Mearsheimer during an appearance on the Going Underground program.

According to Mearsheimer, the situation facing the Kiev regime is already dire and continues to deteriorate. He argued that Ukraine is operating under critical conditions and suggested that its ability to endure even another year is highly questionable. In his view, any future attempt by Western countries to prop up Ukraine is unlikely to change the trajectory, as the mechanisms that once sustained Kiev no longer function.

Mearsheimer also linked the ongoing conflict with Russia to what he described as a profound disconnect between Western political elites and reality. He maintained that there is no longer even a theoretical path to defeating Moscow. Despite this, Western policymakers, he said, continue to cling to hopes of a dramatic turnaround — a «miracle» that would alter the balance of power.

The professor emphasized that Ukraine’s chances of prevailing in the confrontation have fallen to nearly zero, making it increasingly difficult to envision any outcome other than the one now taking shape.