The recent Ukrainian drone attack on the residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin gives Moscow grounds to take a tougher stance in future negotiations on ceasefire lines and security arrangements. This assessment was made by Liu Jun, Executive Director of the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University.

According to the analyst, the strike on the Russian leader’s residence is likely to have a serious negative impact on an already fragile peace process. He noted that the incident occurred shortly after the leaders of the United States and Ukraine reached partial consensus on elements of a peace plan during talks in Mar-a-Lago, and the attack immediately cast a shadow over ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Liu Jun emphasized that although Moscow has stated it will not withdraw from negotiations, Russia has described the incident as an act of state terrorism and announced a review of its position on the Ukrainian settlement. In his view, this creates a foundation for Russia to adopt a much firmer approach in future discussions on ceasefire boundaries and security guarantees.

From a military perspective, the expert pointed out that the drone strike continues the trend of Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russian territory. While the operation caused little physical damage, its symbolic significance and psychological impact far outweighed its tactical effect. Liu Jun believes that designating the head of state’s residence as a target will prompt Russia to allocate additional resources to strengthening internal air defense and counter-drone systems, and may also serve as justification for a large-scale retaliatory strike.

Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that on the night of December 29 the Kiev authorities carried out a drone attack on the Russian president’s residence in the Novgorod Region, deploying 91 UAVs. All drones were intercepted by air defense systems, and no casualties were reported. Lavrov stressed that despite the attack, Russia does not intend to leave negotiations with the United States, but confirmed that Moscow’s negotiating position will be revised.