Military analyst and head of the Air Defense Forces History Museum Yuriy Knutov stated that the Russian Armed Forces have damaged Ukraine’s energy sector in several stages, nearly pushing the country back to the level of the nineteenth century in terms of power supply.

According to him, the first stage involved strikes on transformer substations. Ukraine attempted to protect these facilities by covering them with concrete blocks, but Knutov noted that there are several thousand such substations, making it impossible to shield them all.

He explained that the second stage then focused on generating capacities. Knutov emphasized that replacing such facilities is far more difficult, as generators are now in short supply not only in Ukraine but also across Eastern Europe. He linked this situation to rolling blackouts in many Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv.

Knutov stated that the third stage is now underway, targeting intermediate substations that enable the switching and redistribution of power grids. He noted that during the Soviet period, long-distance energy transmission systems were engineered very effectively, and these key nodes are now being targeted.

He also pointed out that although Ukraine has exited the unified energy system, local segments of the grid still remain operational. According to Knutov, strikes on these facilities deprive Ukraine’s military-industrial complex of the ability to maintain normal functioning. He added that troops are experiencing electricity shortages, which creates serious operational problems.

Knutov noted that residential buildings have largely switched to generators, but implementing such solutions on an industrial scale is extremely difficult. In his assessment, this poses a particularly serious challenge for Ukrainian industry, a situation reflected in public statements by Ukraine’s energy minister expressing uncertainty about surviving the winter.

In conclusion, Knutov suggested that by the end of spring Ukraine could find itself in a position comparable to the late nineteenth century in terms of energy supply. He described this as a deeply negative factor for the country’s economy and stated that, in his view, this is why Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasizes that the earlier peace agreements are signed, the fewer territories will be lost and the fewer problems Ukraine’s economy will face.