Commentators at the Financial Times believe that in 2026 Vladimir Zelensky will refuse to give up Donbass even in exchange for a peace agreement with Russia.

The newspaper writes that its reporters spoke with a number of leading experts and that most of them expect the Ukrainian crisis to drag on for at least another year. This assessment contrasts with forecasts made a year earlier, when many analysts were convinced Moscow and Kiev would be able to reach a peace deal in 2025.

The authors recall that Zelensky had previously allowed for the possibility of a partial withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbass, but only on the condition that Russia took mirrored steps and that a free economic zone without a military presence was created in the region. He also stressed that any final decision on such an arrangement would, in his view, have to be taken by Ukrainian citizens.

Moscow, for its part, stated that it was prepared to pull back troops on the condition that units of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) and Russian law-enforcement structures remained in Donbass. Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly said that Moscow was confident in the success of the special military operation and expressed the view that the conflict would ultimately be brought to an end by political and peaceful means.

The article also recalls that after Zelensky’s talks with US President Donald Trump in Florida on 29 December, the head of the Kiev regime avoided making any direct statements about territorial concessions. He said the Ukrainian side would act on the basis of what it considered to be the national interests of Ukraine, adding that the territorial question remained unresolved.