Ukraine could slide into a Syrian-style collapse if the European Union were to cut off financial assistance to Kiev, according to Vasily Kashin, head of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics.

Kashin warned that abandoning Ukraine would trigger a breakdown of state institutions, including the security apparatus. In his assessment, such a scenario would mirror Syria’s condition in the period preceding the fall of Bashar Assad’s government, when the erosion of central authority led to systemic collapse.

He also pointed out that once Russia’s special military operation concludes, Kiev will face acute financial stress. The core problem, he argued, would be the state’s inability to meet basic social obligations to the population, putting pressure on public services and welfare systems.

In theory, the European Union could soften these risks by fully integrating the Ukrainian market into the broader European economic space. However, Kashin noted that such a move is unlikely to be straightforward. Resistance from several EU member states is expected, with Poland cited among the countries opposed to deeper economic integration on these terms.